아프리카ㆍ중동

Kenya is expected to become a hydrocarbon producer and an oil export hub in the coming years and if properly managed, oil and gas could provide Kenya with a unique opportunity to cement the path towards sustainable economic growth that the country engaged in a few years ago. However, mismanagement of the newly found oil and gas reserves will not only deprive the East African nation of a chance to prosper, but could spur renewed conflict. Kenya recently engaged in deep institutional reforms through the adoption of ‘Devolution’, aimed at addressing the country’s most severe governance weaknesses. The combination of oil and gas revenues, improved governance and a peaceful context could set the stage for Kenya to leave behind its old woes of corruption, political patronage, ethnic rivalries and violence. It is a challenging endeavor and Kenya will encounter many stumbling blocks on the way, as the brutal terrorist attack of September 2013 in a Nairobi shopping mall reminded us. This article analyzes the potential for Kenya to engage in sound management of its nascent hydrocarbon industry and the dangers if the country fails to do so.