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연구정보

[경제] “Total Debt is So Much More Than Just Sovereign Debt. Contingent Liabilities in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan”

러시아ㆍ유라시아 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Eurasian Development Bank 발간일 : 2021-10-27 등록일 : 2021-11-12 원문링크

This study aims to contribute to understanding the potential risks and impacts of both explicit and implicit contingent liability shocks on government fiscal and debt positions in the EFSD recipient countries. Special attention is paid to the significance of state-owned enterprises and their role in countries’ debt positions.

Available global or regional debt datasets primarily cover sovereign obligations in advanced and emerging markets. However, the focus of the EFSD research – for the first time in the Eurasian region – is to investigate the total debt, which includes private nonfinancial obligations (households and enterprises). In addition, the study considers publicly guaranteed debt and on-lending, when governments borrow funds from nonresidents and then on-lend the funds to enterprises. The results of this study are the following.

Cross-country evidence within the EFSD region suggests that countries with market access are at the top of the EFSD private debt ranking. In contrast, in Tajikistan, companies’ debt obligations are only half of the EFSD average. This relatively low indebtedness of Tajik state-owned companies can be mainly explained by the country’s access to concessional credits, which the government provides as on-lent loans to large and systemically important companies.

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