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[정책] Welfare Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Moldova Through the Labor and Migration Channels

몰도바 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2021-05-01 등록일 : 2021-10-10 원문링크

This paper describes the contribution of migration and remittances to household welfare in Moldova based on recent data, as well as the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare working through the channels of labor market shocks, return migration and remittances, a salient characteristic of the Moldovan economy. Simulations suggest that in the absence of any direct government intervention to households, return migrants, and workers, the poverty rate could increase by as much as 2.9 percentage points on account of the COVID-19 pandemic, by pushing close to an additional 100,000 people into poverty, primarily through employment losses in pandemic affected sectors. Analysis of the government’s social assistance package to households, return migrants and workers suggests that under certain assumptions on duration, coverage and generosity, the effects of the COVID-19 crisis can be partially, but not fully, mitigated. The impacts of the pandemic associated with return migration and pandemic impacts on remittances are estimated to be more muted, relative to labor market shocks, as initial expectations regarding the magnitude of return migration and remittances decline do not appear to have materialized.

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