아프리카ㆍ중동

The evolving conflicts in the Middle East since October 2023 will continue to shape economic activity. GDP growth is projected to be 2.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. Military expenditure keeps government demand high. Partial normalisation in the business environment is assumed to allow a pick-up in exports and private consumption from mid-2025. Labour shortages are constraining construction and fuelling price pressures. Risks loom large: an intensification of the conflicts would further weigh on activity and an already large fiscal deficit. On the other hand, a swift de-escalation could unleash pent-up demand.