러시아ㆍ유라시아

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to bring a rising economic, social, and humanitarian toll. The attacks on the energy infrastructure have inflicted severe economic damage and losses, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. The war is expected to continue through the coming year, generating expenditure pressures and opening additional financing needs. In addition to the longer war, several other recent developments carry important implications for the IMF-supported program: first, a package of tax measures awaits adoption by Parliament, after which the authorities must continue to build on this effort with further broad-based measures to support fiscal sustainability; second, the successful Eurobond exchange in August is a major achievement toward restoring debt sustainability and securing debt relief amid pressing expenditure needs; and finally, the G7’s assurance to provide US$50 billion of stable, multi-year financing to Ukraine through Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative is critical for meeting the now larger financing needs.