러시아ㆍ유라시아
연구정보
[정책] Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security
우크라이나 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2022-07-07 등록일 : 2022-07-17 원문링크
This paper uses a 4-year panel (2019–2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to estimate direct and indirect effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield. Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.14 rather than 8.38 mn. ha, a 0.75 mn. ha reduction, 86% of which is due to economy-wide effects. The estimated conflict-induced drop in NDVI for winter cereal, which is particularly pronounced for small farms, translates into a 15% yield reduction or an output loss of 4.2 million tons. Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the current winter crop can be harvested fully.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [국제관계] Ukraine’s Revolt, Russia’s Revenge | 2022-07-10 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [경제] Environmental impacts of the war in Ukraine and prospects for a green recon... | 2022-07-24 |
