러시아ㆍ유라시아

Kazakhstan’s economy in 2019 is expected to grow at a modest rate. But growth is expected to ease in 2020, with greater risks from the external environment and vulnerability to shocks. Recently, the economy expanded amid the slacking external environment. Policy stimulus has helped domestic demand, but structural weakness is constraining the economy from expanding further. Continuing with structural reforms is critical to sustain higher and more inclusive economic growth. The special topic of this report is Kazakhstan’s export diversification. Trade plays an important role in Kazakhstan’s development, and the country is positioned to benefit from the growing markets of China, Europe, and Central Asia. Trade offers opportunities for Kazakhstan’s economic growth and for diversifying away from oil. The special topic section of this report highlights the fact that, although Kazakhstan has made progress in diversifying its export destinations, product quality outside commodities is still relatively low and has less than a fifty percent survival rate beyond the first year if a product was exported beyond the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) or Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets. OECD data on trade in value added indicate that Kazakhstan’s exporters used fewer imported inputs compared to a decade earlier, which suggests a declining participation in global value chains.