아프리카ㆍ중동

In Part I, the determinants of past and current migration flows from the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries to OECD countries are discussed. In particular, the influence of economic, demographic and political factors on the size and composition of migration flows from North Africa to OECD countries is put forward using two complementary econometric analyses. In Part II, the economic and demographic prospects in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are discussed focusing on the key determinants identified previously as important driving forces of future migration trends (GDP per capita, poverty levels, and demographic factors). In Part III, an attempt to assess the impact of climate change on future migration patterns in the Maghreb is carried out. This section looks at ways that climate change might lead to increased forced migration, presents some predictions for numbers of future climate migrants, examines the uncertainties with these predictions and lays out different tentative scenarios on future numbers of forced migrants.