중동부유럽

The article addresses the transformation of fertility patterns in the Baltic countries since the turn of the 1990s, in the context of long-term trends. The purpose of the study is to compare the change in fertility level, parity distribution, timing of childbearing, and the connection between marriage and childbearing in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and analyze the position of the Baltic countries in a broader European perspective. Our results indicate a salient role of tempo effects in the sharp decline of period fertility measures that occurred in the region in the 1990s. Tempo-adjusted measures indicate moderately low fertility levels of 1.6-1.7 children per woman in the region. In the recent years, fertility levels have been rising in all three countries with recuperation being more vigorous in Estonia and less so in Lithuania. Estonia and Latvia also appear more advanced in terms of the spread of childbearing among cohabiting couples, with the proportion of non-marital births comparable to Scandinavian countries. The article discusses the factors underlying the observed similarities and dissimilarities in fertility patterns, pointing to the plausible demographic path dependence.