중남미

This paper aims to discuss the recent trend of economic integration in Latin America and prospects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) negotiations. The region-wide trend of economic liberalization and reform, the successful launching of NAFTA and MERCOSUR, and the revitalization of existing regional arrangements, such as the Andean Pact and the Central Common Market (CACM), contribute to the recent progress of the FTAA negotiations. If it is launched in 2005 as planed, the FTAA will be the largest trade bloc comprising a market of 800 million populations and maintaining a GDP of $12 trillion dollars. Therefore, the FTAA is expected to provide profound impacts on the American region both economically and politically. However, it remains uncertain whether FTAA negotiations will progress smoothly. The thirty-four countries which are currently participating in the FTAA negotiations have differing interests and positions toward various agenda of the FTAA negotiations, thus making it hard for them to reach a consensus and agreement. The successful progress of FTAA negotiations will be determined by a number of factors. The most crucial variable will be the leadership role of the United States. Another crucial factor is the policy of the MERCOSUR and its leader Brazil toward the FTAA negotiations. Regarding the prospects of the FTAA, the three scenarios are suggested in this article. The first scenario is the smooth progress of FTAA negotiations and a successful launching of the FTAA in 2005. The second scenario is the launching of the FTAA with a limited scope. The final scenario is the failure or delay of FTAA negotiations.