중남미

The main purpose of this study is to identify the reasons behind the industrialization policy of lithium in Bolivia. Bolivia has vast amount of lithium reserves. To industrialize its lithium resource, the Morales regime has to choose between two main policy options. One is the ‘state-led industrialization’ policy in which the Bolivian state owns resources and controls all process of industrialization. The other option is ‘industrialization with foreign direct investment’ policy in which the foreign capital and technology become the main players to develop the Bolivian lithium resource. Each policy has strong and weak points. Faced with these options, the Morales regime chose ‘state-led industrialization’ to develop the lithium resource in spite of Bolivia’s short capital and low technology. Bolivian president Evo Morales is a politician whose most important goal is to win the election,so he has opted ‘political certainty’ over ‘economic uncertainty’. Based on the evidence presented in this study, the economic future for Bolivian lithium is doubtful due to various uncertain circumstances. Contrary to the economic uncertainty of developing Bolivian lithium,political reasons for ‘state-led industrialization’ are very clear because resource nationalism and state-centered economic strategy have been the regime’s main economic policy trend. Therefore, the Morales regime could lose its political support if it overturns its economic policy trend for industrializing its lithium resource. In particular, the regime cannot risk to changing its economic policy trend in the face of the next presidential election in 2014. In essence, the study argues that the combination of ‘economic uncertainty’ and ‘political certainty’led Morales regime to choose ‘state-led industrialization’ for developing its lithium resource.