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[정책] Welfare Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Moldova : Main Channels and Impact of Mitigation Measures - Summary Note

몰도바 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - World Bank 발간일 : 2021-05-24 등록일 : 2021-10-10 원문링크

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the economy and livelihoods in Moldova. According to data as of the end of November 2020, more than 120,000 people have been infected with the novel coronavirus, and more than 2,500 have succumbed to the virus. As a share of population, Moldova, along with the United States and some other countries in Europe and Latin America, have been among the most severely affected countries worldwide. The Moldovan economy is projected to contract by 5.2 percent in 2020, in contrast to a pre-crisis growth projection of 3.6 percent as a result of pandemic containment measures undertaken by both the governments of Moldova and of its trade partners, and the corresponding fall in the aggregate demand. While the economy is envisaged to recover in 2021, (with the latest annual growth forecast of 3.5 percent), significant uncertainty remains which is expected to put a drag on economic activity and keep growth below potential over the medium term (World Bank, 2020b). The purpose of this paper is to quantify the labor, migration and remittances channels through which COVID-19 pandemic may affect household welfare. Specifically, the paper estimates using the 2018 HBS for Moldova, which is a nationally representative household survey data, the poverty impact of various scenarios linked to job losses, reduction or cessation in remittances from abroad and the return of migrants to Moldova. The methodology accounts for the specific patterns of Moldova migrant and remittance flows from different countries, as well as the expected evolution of key labor market indicators throughout the pandemic. In addition, the paper attempts to estimate the distributional impact of some of the mitigating social protection measures that were deployed by the Government of Moldova (GOM).

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