아프리카ㆍ중동
연구정보
[정치] Post-Election Dynamics in Lebanon: From Bi-Polar to Tri-Polar Political Structure
아프리카ㆍ 중동 기타 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - Al Sharq Strategic Research 발간일 : 2022-07-04 등록일 : 2022-07-10 원문링크
While Lebanon has long been divided between the 8 March and 14 March blocs since the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, leading Sunni figure and then Lebanese Prime Minister, the parliamentary elections held on 15 May 2022 have introduced a new dynamic to the future of Lebanese politics.
The elections have brought a new political force to challenge the bi-polar dominance of the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance, which included political parties such as Maronite Free Patriotic Movement, Shiite Amal and other small parties on the one hand, and the anti-Hezbollah 14 March bloc, which involved the Sunni Future Party, Maronite Lebanese Forces and Druze Progressive Socialist Party on the other hand.
Favored mainly by the disaffected protestors of the 2019 October Uprising against the entrenched sectarian and dysfunctional order, these anti-establishment and independent figures will shape the formation of different alliance systems in Lebanon politics and, by extension, the positions of effective regional actors like Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Underlining the ramifications of the post-election reality in Lebanon so far, this piece intends to first brief traditional facets of Lebanon politics since 2005 and, secondly, to speculate on the emergent changes with the ascent of a supposed third and would-be vital political force.
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