중남미
연구정보
[경제] Fix vs. Float: Evaluating the Transition to a Sustainable Equilibrium in Bolivia
볼리비아 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - IMF 발간일 : 2022-02-25 등록일 : 2022-03-27 원문링크
Bolivia has achieved noteworthy success over the past 15 years in raising incomes, reducing poverty, and maintaining macroeconomic stability by deploying commodity revenues to finance transfers, public investment, and state-led development, using an exchange rate peg as a policy anchor. However, with the end of the commodity boom in 2014, fiscal deficits have grown and reserves have fallen. One route to restoring long-run sustainability would be to combine fiscal consolidation with a switch to a floating exchange rate. However, a preference for maintaining the peg could be accommodated with adjustments elsewhere in the policy framework. Employing a detailed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Bolivian economy, this study assesses the long-run sustainability and relative benefits of alternative policy combinations, and calculates optimal adjustment paths for the transition from the present situation to the steady state. It concludes that continued adherence to a fixed-rate regime, while not optimal, is feasible, if supported by a larger fiscal effort.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [정책] Informality and pension reforms in Bolivia | 2021-07-31 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [정책] Governance and COVID-19 in Bolivia | 2022-06-22 |
